Gold, Bitcoin, and Emerging Markets: Our Market Playbook

Markets are moving fast and keeping up with what this means for your portfolio can be tough. VanEck’s Asset Allocation Committee recently gave an update on market trends and shared how these factors are shaping our core allocation models, the VanEck Wealth Builder Portfolios.

Key Highlights

• Gold typically outperforms during the second half of the inflation regime as investors seek protection from social, geopolitical, and financial instability.
• Bitcoin has been the best performing asset class in 8 out of the past 11 years and we strongly believe it deserves a place in investors’ strategic asset allocation.
• Semiconductor valuations have reset: It may be time to reengage after a major repricing since last summer.
• India is one of the most compelling structural growth stories in the market, and the recent India correction is a buying opportunity.

Gold is the Second Half Team (9:33)

Government spending accounts for a whopping one-third of U.S. GDP. Deep spending cuts will likely trigger a recession – which would increase U.S. deficits and cause more inflation. And the risk isn’t just inflation—it’s fragmentation. These cuts are happening amid a trade war, which makes everything more expensive, more uncertain, and more fragile.

This market backdrop, characterized by inflation, war, uncertainty and growing financial instability, is built for gold. Historical data shows that commodities outperform during the first half of the inflation regime, while gold typically outperforms during the second half of the inflation regime as investors seek protection from social, geopolitical and financial instability.

Dividing the Bull Market into Two Halves

Source: Bloomberg, VanEck. “Commodities” represented by the Bloomberg Commodity Index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Any projections, forecasts and other forward-looking statements are not indicative of actual results, are for illustrative purposes only, are valid as of the date of this communication, and are subject to change without notice.

Bitcoin Deserves to be Owned (12:47)

Unlike traditional assets, Bitcoin is decentralized—not controlled by any single government or central bank. It is much more volatile than gold and should not be confused as a risk-off asset. Expect prices to remain under pressure in the near term. However, Bitcoin is well-positioned to rally in the future and continue its strong run of performance.

Bitcoin Has Been the Best Performing Asset Class in 8 Out of the Past 11 Years

Source: Morningstar. As of March 2025. “Bitcoin” represented by MVIS CryptoCompare Bitcoin Index; “US Equities” represented by S&P 500 Index; “Gold” represented by S&P GSCI Gold Spot; “EM Equity” represented by Fidelity Emerging Markets Index; “Real Estate” represented by the NASDAQ Global Real Estate Index; “US Bonds” represented by Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond USD; “Treasuries” represented by Bloomberg Aggregate Bond Treasury Index; “Commodities” represented by Bloomberg Commodity Index. Index definitions included at the end of this presentation. Digital assets are subject to significant risk and are not suitable for all investors. Not intended as an offer or recommendation to buy or sell any assets referenced herein. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Finding Opportunity in the Chaos: Semiconductors and India (13:34)

Market volatility often triggers a flight to safety, but for astute investors, it can also open the door to compelling opportunities. When asset prices move sharply in response to fear, uncertainty, or liquidity pressures, dislocations can emerge—creating mispricings that don’t reflect underlying fundamentals. Two of our favorite areas are in semiconductors related to AI and India—as the U.S. economy slows, global stimulus efforts are accelerating elsewhere, and India remains a top conviction idea.

Comprehensive Model Portfolio Solutions: From Core to Thematic (17:32)

VanEck’s model portfolio solutions span from comprehensive asset allocation to thematic offerings. Our Wealth Builder Plus Portfolios provide core exposure to equities and fixed income with a strategic allocation to real and digital assets. Security selection, which marries the elements of both active and passive strategies, allows the portfolio to adapt to changing markets. Its systematic investment approach focuses on maximizing diversification and monitoring risk to optimize performance over the long term.

To learn more about market trends and portfolio positioning, listen to the full discussion here.